Not sure if you’ve heard; perhaps you have been living under a rock. Derek Jeter made his return to the Yankees lineup after missing the team’s first 91 games courtesy of a bum ankle. He wound up finishing the day 1-for-4 with an infield single, RBI and run scored before being removed in the top of the eighth inning with a strained quad. Another DL stint is possible, but what if he can still contribute down the stretch for you?
What does Derek Jeter’s return mean to Fantasy owners? Photo Credit: njnetfan
The position of shortstop hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire, so there were plenty of Fantasy owners out there flocking to waiver wires to get their hands on the Yankee captain to plug into their lineups. If you happen to be one of those owners who already grabbed him or are contemplating doing so in the near future I have a little food for thought for you about what Jeter could give you when he is available.
The 39-year-old is coming off a season where 387 of the 600 balls he hit into play were on the ground; a whopping 62.5 percent. For his career he has hit 58 percent of his balls in play on the ground, and managed to have a BABIP of .354 over 11,895 plate appearances. An absolutely remarkable number when you consider how much less room he is working with putting those ground balls through the infield.
While he has succeeded throughout his career and provided a multitude of quality seasons for Fantasy owners, I am going to suggest not having him on your roster. He will hit for decent average and take his fair share of walks, but he isn’t going to hit for power, steal more than a handful of bases and he will score fewer runs than in years past thanks to a deflated Yankees offense. There just isn’t upside here and more injury frustration.
Observation
Michael Cuddyer’s 27 game hitting streak may have ended on July 2nd, but his solid hitting has continued. In the eight games since, he’s batted .286 with a homer and 4 RBI. The fact that he has continued hitting is a great sign, and precisely the reason why you should be looking to trade him ASAP. While Cuddyer has put up quality Fantasy seasons in the past, the 34-year-old has never posted a BABIP over .328 in a season and has a career total of .309. This year he is currently sitting at .370. If you can’t read the writing on the wall that this guy is in store for a second half regression, then you probably need to get your eyes examined.
Speculation
If you are an owner of Shelby Miller or Jose Fernandez, I would be willing to wager you are near the top of your league standings. Each of these rookie hurlers have been lights out, posting K/9’s over 9.00, ERAs below 3.00 and WHIPs below 1.15. While I don’t own a crystal ball, I do understand the handling of young pitchers. Miller has never thrown more than 150.1 innings in a professional season. The 104.2 he has right now through 18 starts has him on pace for 190. Fernandez is currently sitting on 98.2 and has never thrown more than 134 innings as a pro. While I can guarantee each will set new career highs, how much further they go I can’t foresee. Because of this I am suggesting selling both. These guys are land mines that can potentially blow up your season. Package them with a bat for an upgrade hitter and a serviceable arm to keep you in the race.
Revelation
I would be lying if I said I didn’t have an eye for young players. I have been tracking the Mariners Brad Miller for two years now. The 23-year old out of Clemson has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the second round of the 2011 draft. Over 999 minor league plate appearances he posted a .334/.426/.516 triple slash line with 27 homers, 128 RBIs and 30 stolen bases. Since his call-up on June 28 he has picked up right where he left off, posting a .286/.375/.469 over his first 13 games with the club. Seattle has already moved him up to the leadoff spot and he has responded by taking four walks in his first 28 plate appearances. I have been grabbing him in every league I can. He was above average pop for a middle infielder, makes great contact and will perform at this level.
Observation
The Pirates have been the biggest surprise of the first half, and they are 18 games over .500 courtesy of their 3.09 team ERA. Jeff Locke has been a huge part of that success, posting a 2.15 ERA over his first 109 innings. Fantasy owners have hopped on this train and rode it very happy. Unfortunately, everything I see shows it is going to derail. For starters he has the highest strand rate in the league at 83.3 percent. He teams that with an opponent’s BABIP of .228, second lowest in the league among qualified starters. He also has the ninth highest BB/9 in the league at 3.88. I would hold out some more hope if he had dominating stuff, but his K/9 is just at 6.03. We are looking at a guy who has been about as lucky as one can get through 18 starts.
Speculation
The Indians Danny Salazar made his big league debut on Thursday afternoon against Toronto, and he was absolutely lights out. He threw six innings of one run ball while allowing a hit, a walk and striking out seven. He flashed high 90’s heat with some pretty wicked off speed offerings. Trevor Bauer may be the organization’s prized pitching prospect, but Salazar has thoroughly outpitched him all year. Through 76 Double and Triple-A innings he has posted a 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a very impressive 100 strikeouts. Unfortunately, with Zach McAllister scheduled to come off the DL after the All-Star break, there won’t be any room in the rotation for Salazar in the rotation. That being said, he has definitely leap-frogged the erratic Bauer to be the first arm up, and that makes him someone worth grabbing in deep mixed leagues. He is just an injury or Scott Kazmir implosion from being up for the remainder of the season.
Revelation
Coming of a career year, Matt Cain was looked at as a Top-10 arm heading into Fantasy drafts. I wasn’t as high on him as most, and actually listed him as a bust in our draft kit. With that said, even I wasn’t predicting him to get off to this rough of a start. His 5.06 ERA is a full run and a half higher than his career mark. A look at his numbers reveal two things, with the first being he is giving up a 1.29 homers per nine innings. His highest mark for a season was 0.91 back in ’09. Second, his strand percentage is at a career low 63.4 percent. That is the third worst rate in the league. If you are in need of pitching, he looks like a great buy low opportunity. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he dropped his ERA a full run before the season comes to an end.
*All statistics include the games of Thursday, July 11.
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